Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Investing.com -- U.S. President Donald Trump says the Iran war is "very close to being over," and equity markets appear to agree, but analysts and on-the-ground developments suggest the situation remains far from resolved.
The S&P 500 is now up 1.3% since February 27, the day before the conflict began, effectively erasing the war’s entire market impact.
Yardeni Research highlighted in a note that the index is within roughly 11 points of a new all-time high, calling the recovery "yet another V-shaped buy-the-dip rebound" and "another buying opportunity arising from a geopolitical crisis."
The firm noted that since the March 30 low, the market-weighted S&P 500 has surged 9.8%, while the MAGS ETF, which tracks the largest technology stocks, is up 14.8% over the same period.
Trump told Fox Business in an interview that the U.S. is "very close" to ending the conflict, adding, "I think they want to make a deal very badly."
Peace talks with Iranian negotiators are expected to resume Thursday after weekend discussions in Pakistan produced no breakthrough, with Vice President JD Vance saying "a lot of progress" was made but that "the ball is very much in their court."
Complicating the picture, Trump on Monday is said to have instituted a naval blockade of all Iranian ports, a fresh escalation even as ceasefire talks continue.
Meanwhile, on inflation, Yardeni Research flagged that March PPI headline inflation hit 4.0% year-on-year, the highest in over three years, driven by an 11.2% surge in energy prices.
However, the firm noted the energy shock has not yet spread to core prices, with services inflation holding flat year-on-year in the latest data.
