Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
April 14 (Reuters) - ANZ said on Tuesday it expects Brent crude to trade above $90 per barrel in 2026 before ending the year at $88 due to a loss of supply from the Middle East conflict.
The Australian bank sees oil prices remaining elevated into 2027 and staying around the $80 to $85 per-barrel range.
ANZ estimates nL1N40W154 that nearly 10 million barrels per day of crude supply have been removed from effective global availability, turning what was expected to be a modest surplus at the start of the year into a deep deficit nL4N40T0EF.
While some supply could return to the market in the event of normalising security conditions, the bank estimates that between 1 million and 2 million bpd of output could face permanent or semi-permanent disruption due to reservoir damage, deferred maintenance, and financial challenges.
The U.S. military began a blockade of Iran’s ports, angering Tehran and raising uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, although hopes for dialogue nL6N40X074 to end the war provided some relief to oil markets. [O/R]
Brent futures declined by 0.7% to $98.64 on Tuesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.7% to $97.4 by 0537 GMT.
Brokerage/ Brent WTI Forecasts Price
Agency as of Targets
2026 2027 2026 2027
Goldman $83 ($85 $80 $78 ($79 $75 April 9, Trims 2Q
Sachs previousl previous 2026 2026
y) ly) Brent, WTI
forecast
to $90/$87
ANZ $88* April 14, Expects
2026 Brent
prices to
remain
above
$90/bbl
for the
rest the
year. Sees
prices at
$80-$85/bb
l into
2027
UBS - - - - April 13, Expects
2026 prices
to trade
>$150/bbl
if flows
through
Hormuz
remain
disrupted.
Sees Brent
at
$100/bbl
by
end-June
2026, $95
by
end-Sept,
$90 by
end-Dec
Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.93 $70.50 March 27 If the war
continues
until end
of June,
oil prices
may rise
to $200
Morgan - $80 ($70 - - March 24, Expects
Stanley previously 2026 Brent
) prices to
remain
above
$80/bbl
for the
rest of
2026
J.P Morgan - $72 - - March 20, Expects
2026 Brent
prices
averaging
$100/bbl
in Q2’26,
$90/bbl in
Q3’26 and
$80/bbl in
Q4’26
Standard $85.50 Expects
Chartered ($70 Brent to
previousl average
y) $78/bbl in
Q1’26, and
$98/bbl in
Q2’26
BofA $77.50 $66 ($62 - $61 ($59 March 16, Expects
($61 previously previous 2026 Brent to
previousl ) ly) average
y) $80/bbl in
Q2’26, but
average
$76/bbl in
Q3’26
Barclays $85 (from - - - March 13, But if the
$65 2026 Strait of
previousl Hormuz
y) takes 4-6
The weeks to
forecast normalise,
assumes says Brent
the could
Strait of climb to
Hormuz $100/bbl
normalise
s in 2-3
weeks
BMI $70 ($67 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects
previousl 2026 Brent to
y) average
$67/bbl
and
$69/bbl in
Q3’26 and
Q4’26,
respective
ly.
Citi $71 ($63 $64 $68($60 $61 March 11, Anticipate
previousl previous 2026 s Brent
y) ly) averaging
$75/bbl in
Q1’26,
$78/bbl in
Q2’26, and
$68/bbl in
Q3’26
HSBC $80 ($65 $70($66 $76($61 $67($63 March 10,
previousl previously previous previous 2026
y) ) ly) ly)
* indicates end-of-period forecast