Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Analysis of gold futures across various timeframes indicates that record highs were reached early this year, followed by a significant decline that may result in a retest of post-pandemic levels by year-end.
A comparative study of gold futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures, coinciding with the changing stances of U.S. President Donald Trump on the Strait of Hormuz, shows that the resultant moves by both could make it possible by the end of April 2026.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump issued an expletive-laden warning to Iran, demanding that it reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He threatened severe military action, saying that Tuesday would be “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day.”
This comes as Trump, on Saturday, gave another 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait. “Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out – 48 hours before all hell will rain down on them. Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP,” he said.
Iran, however, rejected Trump’s threats, with Tehran’s central military command issuing a sharp rebuke. General Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi from Khatam al-Anbiya Central described the US President’s remark as a “helpless, nervous, unbalanced, and stupid action.”
Undoubtedly, President Trump’s action on choking of Strait of Hormuz since February 28 changes every day, but after successful completion of a rescue operation to save the U.S. airman on Sunday, changed his tone on Iran, as this will help him to defend his declining image before the mid-term election, where a defeat could lead to a regime change in the U.S. while President Trump is trying to rebuild his image by issuing repeated threats to Iran.
On the other hand, the UN Security Council has postponed a vote scheduled for Friday (March 3, 2026) on authorising the use of “defensive” force to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian attacks, according to the official program.
The 15-member body was set to vote Friday morning on a draft resolution brought by Bahrain, but by Thursday night (April 2), the schedule shifted.
The reason given was that the United Nations observes Good Friday as a public holiday, according to diplomatic sources -- despite this fact being known when the vote was first announced.
No new date has been given for voting on the draft.
Undoubtedly, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is fundamentally altering the global energy security narrative, shifting the spotlight from volatile hydrocarbons to the structural resilience of nuclear power.
Iran has placed a stranglehold on the key shipping lane - threatening fuel supplies and roiling the global economy -- in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes that triggered the month-old war in West Asia.
Now, as Iranian missiles streak across the Strait of Hormuz and US bombers hit targets across Tehran, a parallel battle driven by wit and humour is raging from Iran’s diplomatic missions around the world.
In the latest instance, Iran’s mission in Zimbabwe suggested a tongue-in-cheek solution to the crisis: “Be polite and pass.” France and Spain were the hashtags with it, suggesting that the countries negotiating in peace for a safe passage were being granted permissions.
Serbian security forces have intercepted a major sabotage attempt against the country’s energy infrastructure, uncovering "explosives of devastating power" planted along a primary natural gas pipeline near the Hungarian border.
The discovery, announced by President Aleksandar Vucic on Sunday, marks a significant escalation in regional security risks as the Middle East conflict continues to strain global energy logistics and heighten domestic anxieties across Europe.
I observe that such a grim geopolitical scenario on Sunday evening could extend indecisiveness all around the global markets.
While the final directional move could start after Tuesday, as the market participants would prefer to wait for settling the dust on Wednesday.
Monday’s move will matter a lot as a gap-up opening by crude oil futures could shake the precious metals, and if the gold and silver futures remain below the key levels this week, both could retest post-pandemic levels before this year ends.
Technical Levels to Watch
GOLD
In a weekly chart, after a reversal near the significant support at the 50 EMA ($4,112) during the last week, gold futures have closed the last week at $4,679.70, just above the immediate support at the 20 EMA ($4,634) after starting the week’s high at $4,825.90, and week’s low at $4,444.70.
Undoubtedly, if the gold futures start this week below the 20 EMA, the next target could be the 50 EMA support, where a sustainable move below this will confirm the continuation of exhaustion.
US DOLLAR INDEX
In a weekly chart, US dollar index futures have closed the last week at $109, just below the immediate resistance at the 200 EMA ($100.543). Undoubtedly, a sustainable move above this immediate resistance will continue the bullish momentum intact.
BRENT CRUDE OIL
In a weekly chart, Brent crude oil futures closed last week, just below the immediate resistance at the 112, where a breakout could push the futures to test the next resistance at $119.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold, crude oil, and dollar index futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.